Balancing Coronavirus Risks

Every morning we read the New York Times, the Washington Post, and our local paper, the Star Tribune. We took out subscriptions to all three newspapers within days of the 2016 presidential election because we need to support good journalism to hold the US Administration accountable.

Today, the news is uniquely disturbing. Most of us have never experienced a pandemic on this scale, accompanied by serious economic dislocation.

Empty seats on our Hawaiian Airlines flight from Honolulu HNL to Hilo ITO on Hawaii Big Island. It was a Sunday morning; maybe there are often empty seats on a Sunday morning.

We’re currently staying in a VRBO (Vacation Rental by Owner) cottage on a fruit farm on Hawaii Big Island. With our propensity for quiet hikes, we are truly socially distanced.

View from our lanai.

Our intent is to continue our time in Hawaii, as planned. We’ll return home to Minneapolis in three weeks, as planned.

However, if we wanted to minimize risks, we would take the next flight home. Clearly it’s better to be sick at home. Besides, it’s easy to rebook a flight and cancel accommodations online.

There was still a sufficient supply at Target in Hilo.

But I believe life is about balancing risks, not eliminating them.

Here’s some assertions about the virus as it might affect us:

  • Our primary responsibility is to not pass the virus on to other people.
  • Sooner or later we’ll probably get it if we haven’t already had mild cases.
  • It would be inconvenient to have it in Hawaii.
  • The chances of getting it in Hawaii are fairly low.
  • No family, friends, or neighbors currently need our help back home.

At the time of writing, Hawaii Big Island has one case, a US mainland visitor. There are no known cases of local transmission anywhere in the Hawaiian Islands. Of course these numbers would surely be higher if more tests were available. It’s clear, though: we aren’t in a coronavirus hotspot; the chance of catching it in the next three weeks are low.

Haircuts in Honoka’a. After today, the business is closing down for two weeks “to protect the old folks.” I got a senior discount.

The most likely scenarios over the next three weeks are:

  1. We do not catch the virus, we fly home as planned. -Or-
  2. We do not catch the virus, but all flights from Hawaii to the US mainland are cancelled.

Scenario #2 is not a problem for us. We’ll check online to see if we can catch an earlier flight, or we’ll simply choose to enjoy the extra time in Hawaii. There’s plenty places to stay with availability.

A less-likely scenario is: One of us catches the virus. If that happens, we’ll postpone our flight back home, hunker down, and figure things out on the fly.

For now, though, we’re following our original travel plan… but we’re free to change our minds tomorrow morning when we catch up with the latest news.

A good friend back in the Twin Cities published a thoughtful but not-too-serious blog post: Social Distancing. He lists some rules for living to remind us we can strive to be better people, particularly in these times. If it was bicycle weather, right now, in the Twin Cities, it would be tempting to fly home now. Dave and I have enjoyed many cycling adventures, and it’s easy to be socially distant when cycling. For now, though, Hawaii’s climate wins.

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